Retrospect of Gross Domestic Product of India and China: A Comparative Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46977/apjmt.2024.v04i03.004Keywords:
Gross Domestic Product of China, Gross Domestic Product of India, New Economic Policy 1991, 5 trillion EconomiesAbstract
India's economic goal is to achieve a $5 trillion economy by the year 2025, which requires a real growth rate of 12 percent, as per Indian economists. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecasted a real GDP growth rate of 6.5 percent for the fiscal year 2023–24, which would make India the third-largest economy in the world, surpassing China. To determine the GDP growth trend and predict the future direction. A study was conducted comparing the GDP growth rate of India and China using the past 32 years of data using the Trend Projection and Least Square Method.
The present study revealed that India's GDP growth has been consistently rising, while China's GDP growth starts high and declines over time. Interestingly, the data intersects between 2020 and 2025, indicating that India's GDP growth rate surpasses that of China during this period. Furthermore, the study found that the GDP growth rates of both countries are expected to be equal in 2023. However, beyond this point, India's GDP is predicted to continue its upward trajectory, while China's GDP is projected to decline further. Therefore, India must implement appropriate monetary, fiscal, and physical policies, such as 50 percent partnership in both the private and government sectors, avoid selling public property to the private sector and elect honest leaders to achieve its vision. Hence, the Government has to come up with New Economic Policy for 2025 to realize its prediction.
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